The Demographic Tsunami
According to most estimates, the human population passed 8 billion in late 2022.
Since about 1970, the global population has been growing linearly, increasing by 1 billion every 12 years or so. This linear growth seems to be a fluke. During that period, the population grew, while the fertility rate declined. The result just happened to be roughly linear growth.
Population growth was not uniform across countries or regions. Some countries, such as Nigeria and Pakistan, grew rapidly. Others, such as the United States, grew more slowly. A few, such as Russia and Japan, now have declining populations.
In 1970, the global population was less than half of what it is today. China and India were the biggest countries. The Soviet Union was third, with about 240 million people. However, the Russian part of the Soviet Union was significantly smaller than the United States. Of existing countries, the United States was third, and Russia was fourth. Indonesia was fifth, at less than half its current size. Japan was sixth, with 103 million people. The other countries were Brazil, Germany, Bangladesh and Pakistan, all with populations below 100 million.
Today, China and India are still the biggest countries in the world. Both have over 1.4 billion people. The United States is a distant third, with about 332 million people. (That number could be an underestimate, due to illegal immigration.) Japan and Germany have dropped out of the top 10, replaced by Mexico and Nigeria.
| Country | 2021 Population (millions) |
1970 Population (millions) |
Ratio |
| China | 1412.4 | 818.3 | 1.7 |
| India | 1407.6 | 557.5 | 2.5 |
| United States | 331.9 | 205.1 | 1.6 |
| Indonesia | 273.8 | 115.2 | 2.4 |
| Pakistan | 231.4 | 59.3 | 3.9 |
| Brazil | 214.3 | 96.4 | 2.2 |
| Nigeria | 213.4 | 55.6 | 3.8 |
| Bangladesh | 169.4 | 67.5 | 2.5 |
| Russia | 143.4 | 130.4 | 1.1 |
| Mexico | 126.7 | 50.3 | 2.5 |
The preceding table shows the top 10 countries in 2021 by population, their populations in 2021 and 1970, and the ratio between those populations. Nigeria and Pakistan had the biggest proportional increases. Both were almost four times larger in 2021 than in 1970. India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Mexico and Brazil more than doubled. The United States increased by 62%. China increased by 73%. Russia had the lowest proportional growth, increasing by only about 10%.
Demographically, the world is a very different place today than it was in 1970. All regions grew, but some regions grew much more than others, proportionately.
East Asia & Pacific is the largest region, followed by South Asia. Together, they contain more than half the world’s population. North and South America together contain only about 13% of the world’s population.
Differences in fertility were the main reason for the differences in population growth. The preceding chart shows total fertility (children per woman) by region, over the period 1970 to 2020. There was a general decline in fertility, but some regions declined more than others, and some started with higher fertility than others. Even without immigration, a population can continue to grow for decades after fertility has fallen below replacement, due to demographic momentum.
The preceding chart shows the population of children (under 15 years old) by region in 2021. Compare this chart to the current population by region to get an idea of how the world is changing demographically. East Asia & Pacific has the largest population currently, but South Asia has the largest child population, followed closely by Sub-Saharan Africa.
The preceding chart shows the top 10 countries by child population. It is significantly different from the top 10 countries by total population. India has many more children than China. Instead of third, the United States is sixth, after Nigeria, Pakistan and Indonesia. Ethiopia is next on the list, even though it is not in the top 10 by total population. Congo D. R. also makes it onto the list.
Some countries that were very important in the past, such as Russia, Japan, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, are fading into global insignificance demographically. Nigeria alone has more children than all of those countries together. So does Pakistan.
High fertility countries, such as Nigeria and Pakistan, have rapidly growing child populations. Countries with low fertility and low immigration, such as Russia and Japan, have declining child populations. In the United States, the child population has been roughly steady, despite an increasing population due to immigration. The same is true of the United Kingdom. Even with immigration, Western countries have aging populations.
Most people know that the global population is growing, but few appreciate how much its composition has changed. For example, most people are shocked to discover that Nigeria has a bigger population than Russia. The composition of the world’s population is changing geographically, racially and culturally.
These demographic changes will have a big impact on the future of the world. As the global population increases, and fossil fuels are burned up, life will get harder. The hardship will be worse in the more populous and less-developed parts of the world. There is likely to be mass migration from those regions to the richer parts of the world, especially Europe.
In the past, the developed world could afford to bail out less-developed countries during hard times. For example, Western countries sent a large amount of aid to Ethiopia in 1985, to help deal with famine conditions. At the time, Ethiopia had about 40 million people. Today, it has over 120 million people. It would be much harder for the West to help Ethiopia today. The same is true for other countries that are economically fragile and have large populations, such as Pakistan. If they collapse, it will be hard to bail them out or absorb the refugees.
The future is determined by who shows up. The population explosion in the less-developed parts of the world is a demographic tsunami, which will sweep over the world and profoundly change it.
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