The BLM Effect
The death of George Floyd in May 2020 caused a widespread moral panic about racism and policing, which was commonly called the “Black Lives Matter” movement (BLM). Many local governments, especially in large cities, responded by reducing police activity in various ways. See George Floyd and the Madness of Crowds . In this essay, I will assess the effects of the BLM movement on mortality in the US. As expected by some of us, there was a big increase in the homicide rate in 2020. All data are from the CDC . Note that most Hispanics are classified as “White” in the data. As you can see, there was a large increase in the homicide rate immediately after the George Floyd incident. The increase was highest in the black population, who are the majority of homicide victims and offenders, despite being roughly 13% of the population. The chart above shows the same data, in stacked format, so that you can see the total increase in the homicide rate. The preceding c...